活動名稱：2025 TTX區域安全兵推
活動日期：2025/03/03~03/05
活動地點：政大公企中心
主辦單位：國立政治大學國際關係研究中心、CSS台灣安全研究中心、亞太政策研究協會
2025/3/5本基金陳冲董事長，應國際關係研究中心邀請，於「TTX區域安全兵推」，擔任國安政經推演動次的主推官，並就Taiwan Economic Stability, Financial Resilience 提出scenario overview。
陳董事長以War game needs more chips為題，提出其看法，談話是以英文發表（附中文翻譯），題目中的chips 是指籌碼而非晶片。以下是演講的內容：
War Game needs more chips
I’ve spent decades of career navigating the waters of the financial sector, but when it comes to war games or warfare, frankly speaking, I am a fish out of water. However, I know that in this digital age, we must see things from a different angle. Take the English name of our foundation, the Appacus Foundation, for example. It may seem unfamiliar at first glance but it’s actually the portmanteau of App, a term widely used in the digital age, and abacus, the traditional calculation tool. This new composite word, Appacus, implies that new generation can no longer view modern finance through outdated perspectives. The same concept applies when talking about warfare in the 21st century.
At the end of 2018, about six years ago, I suffered a brain stroke while giving a speech at National Taiwan University campus and was hospitalized for over a month. After being discharged, a television station invited me back to the same program I had appeared on before illness to comment on the same topic , Trump’s trade war with China. At that time, I held up a sign that reads: The trade war is more than a trade war, stressing that modern warfare is not confined to only one form. If we only talk about trade war, there may never be sound conclusion.
As The Art of War states, win first and then go to war. In other words, whether a country decides to engage in war depends on the likelihood of victory. Similarly, when discussing war games, we first need to think through all possible scenarios. Besides military aspects, factors such as finance, trade, technology, energy, and food must all be considered. The Russia Ukraine war serves as a good lesson. As we could see, after the financial sanction and after being expelled from SWIFT, Russia appeared to be paying a heavy price and had to seek alternative solutions. But on the other hand, whether from the perspective of food supply, transportation, or insurance, the Black Sea Grain Initiative arranged by UN did grant Russia time to catch a breath. Also, despite sweeping sanctions imposed by the US and the UK, Russia still managed to export oil and natural gas after the war broke out- only with different buyers, and even becomes the main supplier of natural gas to EU in September 2024.
When discussing war games, we must first consider: who is the warring rival？ If the hypothetical conflict involves only Taiwan and China, without external instigation, the probability of war seems low. According to Sun Tzu's principle mentioned earlier, Taiwan will prepare for war but not seek out war. As for Beijing, the Financial Times once reported that Xi Jinping told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The U.S. is luring China into a military conflict over Taiwan, but he would not take the bait. Although not officially confirmed, these remarks appear reasonable.
Will China fall out as America pressures more trying to back China into corner？ My knowledge is so limited that I can only analyze from financial point. Based on the current balance of power, Beijing will choose to avoid one. As the gap narrows, the probability increases. It may not occur before 2028 in my view though. So, when is the time？ I don’t want to make a guess but if must, I suggest some indicators. About certain percentage of global trade for example 10% is now cleared in RMB, whether the CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) covers the majority of the world's top 100 banks, the RMB has been officially issued in the form of CBDC, and the BRICS system has been established and now already in operation.
Dear friends, as I know, this TTX is based on a scenario set in 2029, which aligns with my repeated opinion these years that Beijing will not go to war before 2028 considering the financial power gap (between China and America). If my humble opinion somewhat counts, I hope during this TTX we can thoroughly discuss various factors, including changes in the settlement proportions of different major currencies within international organizations like IMF or SWIFT, the recent expansion of China's CIPS especially the number of foreign participants, the growth of SWAP agreements between China’s central bank and their counterparts in major trading partners, and the development of the BRICS payment system. Well, I only mention a few of them and I believe you as experts of TTX can explore more. Wish you all fruitful discussions and great success！
翻譯：
我長期在金融界工作，對兵棋推演，並無經驗，也不懂戰爭，但我了解在數位時代，很多事情的考慮，必須不同，正如同本基金的外文名稱Appacus Foundation一樣，乍看之下也許不很明瞭，其實是數位時代的App加上傳統的金融計算工具Abacus，轉為一個新的合成字，表示新的世代不宜再用舊的思維來看現代金融，廾一世紀談論戰爭也是一樣。
2018年底，大約是六年多前，我在台灣大學演講時腦溢血中風，在醫院住院超過一個月。出院後電視台找我上病前同一節目，再次評論同一話題---川普的對華貿易戰，當時我拿出一手版，上書The trade war is more than a trade war，重申現代戰爭不會只是單純一種型態，我們如果只侷限在貿易戰討論，不會有完整的結論。
孫子兵法有云，勝兵先勝而後求戰，是否求戰就要看有無勝算。同樣道理，討論war game，就要先盤點各種可能方案，除軍事外，金融、貿易、科技、能源、糧食等，都要列入考量。實例都可以在俄烏戰爭找到實證，我們看到俄國被逐出SWIFT付出慘痛的代價，需要另覓途徑補強；我們也看到Black sea grain initiative協助俄國爭取到喘息的機會，不論從糧食、運送或保險層面。此外，美英在戰爭爆發後禁止自俄國進口原油及天然氣，結果我們看到俄國原油依舊出口，只是換了買方，甚至2024/9成為歐盟最主要天然氣供應國。
談到兵推，我們必須先考慮誰是交戰方？我們預想的戰爭，如果是以台灣海峽兩岸為交戰方，在沒有第三者挑撥下，可能性不大。根據前述孫子兵法的觀點，台灣會備戰，但不會求戰。至於北京方面，依據金融時報說法，習近平曾告訴歐盟主席Ursula von der Leyen: the US is luring China into a military conflict over Taiwan, but he would not take the bait. 雖然沒有官方證實這些講法，但卻是合理的推論。
如果美國施壓或把北京逼到牆角，中國大陸是否會與美國翻臉？我學問有限，只能從金融來看，以目前金融戰的實力觀察，北京應該會盡量避戰。但雙方實力差距如再縮小，才會有可能，以我觀察，在2028之前，這種可能性應不致發生。至於何時發生？我不願臆測，如一定要猜測，可以參考幾個指標:國際貿易至少有10%是以人民幣清算、CIPS涵蓋世界百大銀行的多數、人民幣正式以CBDC發行、BRICS建置完成並順利運轉等。
各位嘉賓，據我了解，本次兵推的推演想定是以2029年為基準，這與我以往多次所說在2028年前，從金融實力差距考量，北京不致求戰恰巧相符，如果我的瞭解可以參考，那SWIFT等國際組織關於各種貨幣結算比例的變化、人民幣CIPS擴展的進度、PBOC與其他央行SWAP額度的擴展、還有金磚國家支付系統建置的幅度等，在我們TTX切磋中，希望都能仔細討論。在此預祝各位成果豐碩，本次推演成功！