(本文翻譯自 陳冲 錯失自貿協定反惹禍 2022.03.09.)
Two gangs in the street. One of them gradually lost its power while fourteen brothers had already joined the other one. And recently, a prominent member living next door is also making eyes at the rival. No doubt the anger flames in the crime boss’ heart. The sense of crisis and loss in Putin’s heart is probably the same as he saw fourteen members of former Eastern Bloc joined NATO successively after 1997 and now Ukraine also wants to turn its coat. That Ukraine wants to take actions against the Russian-speaking residents in the east, destroying their history, is even unbearable. But it’s widely known that resorting to war is always unacceptable to the international public opinion.
I stepped down as Premier in 2013. With deep concern for Taiwan’s future, I often advocate the importance of bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements and started to notice the role of Ukraine. In 2013 Summer, the four-nation customs union led by Russia was upgraded to Eurasian Customs Union. I mentioned several times then in my speech and newspaper column that Eurasian Customs Union was actively wooing Ukraine to be an observer. At the same time, EU was also negotiating a trade deal with Ukraine and announced that both sides had already reached agreement on the details and text of the pact and would sign it on Nov. 30th. Unexpectedly, Ukraine abruptly ditched its plans to sign the pact on Nov. 21st. It seemed really incomprehensible to the people in Taiwan as we felt like our back against the wall trying to sign FTA with other countries. It is generally believed that Ukraine's decision to make such a decision was influenced and wrestled by Russian politics and financial aid.
At the 2014 50th Munich Security Conference, Russia and EU representatives criticized each other. Van Rompuy, the then President of the European Council, even shouted emotional words” The future of Ukraine belongs with the European Union”. But actions speak louder than words. Not striking while the iron is hot and sign the trade agreement just one step away, Ukraine lost the opportunity. After Munich Conference, Russia invaded and subsequently annexed Crimea through a disputed referendum. Then, the unrest in two eastern provinces of Ukraine began and last until now. It seemed to be just pure bluster when Ukraine vowed to join EU or NATO, which has much stronger political meaning than FTA, when the war is already underway now. Trade agreement (especially EU agreement) shows a country’s determination to open market, also a talisman in a way, that should be signed immediately whenever a chance. Ukraine’s decision to stop talk with EU domestically triggered the Euromaidan Revolution. The Parliament removed President Yanukovych from office and installed an interim government. Externally, it made Russia feel that its pressure was effective. Although the agreement was finally signed after the new president took office on June 27, 2014, the dynamic situation deepened Russia’s sense of crisis (or mindset to keep pushing its luck) that imperceptibly led to the conflict now. In retrospect, the decision seemed to be an irreversible error forever. That Taiwan couldn’t insist on signing the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) may be another distressing story….
A few days ago, seeing western countries’ financial sanctions on Russia, we Appacus Foundation published an article, mentioning that President Obama in 2009, after Zhou Xiaochuan (President of PBOC) wrote an essay titled “Reform the International Monetary System”, affirmly claimed that U.S. dollar “extraordinary strong” and thus no need for a SDR enhanced edition. Obama’s quick reaction though determined somehow revealed America's intent to maintain its financial hegemony so that it can keep printing large amount of money internally and obtain power to sanction others externally. As we can see, these big brothers are really sensitive to anything that might affect its status. America is and Russia as well.
By the way, these days the media often said that Russia deliberately launched the war after the Beijing Winter Olympics and thus it could be a conspiracy between Russia and China. This kind of suspicion might be a result of not studying history. Tracing back to history, we could find that Russia invaded Crimea on Feb. 23th 2014, just after the Sochi Winter Olympics. In other words, the Russia-Ukraine war this time could have been predicted. History repeats itself. Only we human forgetful all the time.