(本文翻譯自 陳冲 貨幣競爭 也是貨幣戰爭 2022-09-22)
It seems politically incorrect to discuss the development of e-CNY in Taipei, so let’s first take a look at what great drama the White House is going to play for us this year.
Shortly after the start of Russia-Ukraine war in March, the White House talked about the war almost every day with an exception on Mar. 9th. Instead, Biden unexpectedly signed an executive order on digital asset. The press release described it a first-ever and whole-of-government act. As the war continues, it’s obviously unusual for Biden to have such a leisure mood to talk about digital asset. The last paragraph of the order specifically mentioned CBDC which Fed paid little attention to before. Thus, it is reasonable to think that the unusual move is related to the strategy caused by the war to some extent.
As predicted, half a year later on Sep. 12th, the White House published a long policy statement, emphasizing the importance of digital asset, and at the end, it also encourages cooperation among all department on CBDC, arguing that it could not only improve payment systems, provide interoperability with other platforms and advance financial inclusion, but also help preserve U.S. global financial leadership, and support the effectiveness of sanctions. Obviously. In the process of financial sanctions against Russia and the scenario planning of cross-strait crisis, the US has realized that under the competition of sovereign digital currency, if it falls behind, it will be more difficult to impose financial sanctions and also the risk of losing the currency war will increase.
I believe the world still remember that after the Russia-Ukraine war breaks out, in addition to the military war, the major action of the US was to impose financial sanctions on Russia. The most powerful one is to cut major Russian banks off from Swift. The US might consider whether the same sanction will achieve effect if the target is Beijing now. Western finance media, including The Economist, have long commented that if China and the US start a military war in Asia, it’s hard to tell who will win. (There are many similar discussions, such as Danger zone;The coming conflict with China). And if it’s a financial war, the US is sure to win. So, why is Biden so nervous?
Looking back at the 20th century when the US dollar enjoyed advantageous benefits in all aspect. All the world knew it. In 2009, Zhou Xiaochuan wrote an article expressing his opinion on international monetary system. The article was written in a plain way and put everyone’s thoughts into words which caused Obama’s attack. Since then, in 2014, China began the research and development in e-CNY which is now actively tested. In 2015, China launched the CIPS to internationalize RMB and in 2016, RMB joined in SDR basket. A new global currency reserve has gradually formed. If a financial war starts or financial sanctions launched, Beijing seems a stronger opponent than Moscow. That’s why the US is uneasy with the situation now. Recently, the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) rallied and it seems that it’s the NATO in the East. The summit laid the foundation for the expanded CBDC project m-Bridge ( with four participating authorities now: Thailand, China, the UAE and HK).
Ironically, the world's largest exporter, also the world's largest creditor, to everyone’s surprise, is actually in a bad situation in the face of the opponent, the world's largest importer and the world's largest debtor, in a possible financial war. Of course, creditors are afraid of debtors. The US dollar has an advantage in printing money, platforms, and trade settlement. It originally had a leg up on the competition. At the beginning of 2021, Beijing announced a newly established joint venture with SWIFT and four Chinese institutions, FGIS, trying to get rid of the control of SWIFT. However, since it still requires SWIFT to hold half of the shares, it’s still hard to be fully independent concerning financial information and capital platform in the short term. However, if after 2025 the infrastructure of financial war become more advantageous to China, it may be the hidden worry behind the news released by the White House on Sep .12th.
Just as Hoover Institution analyzes, DCEP will inevitably transform the geoeconomic landscape. When e-CNY is launched and many countries join cross-border payment, not only geo-economics, but also geopolitics and geo-military affairs will suffer great impact. The White House must have noticed the seriousness and thus warned twice in 2022 when the flames of war raged. Our government should rush to catch up, showing our strength in the research and development of digital currency (no matter CBDC or DCEP). Also, we can demonstrate our technological strength, showing that we are qualified to be a member of non-NATO ally. Don’t just beg and expect sympathy vote.