(本文翻譯自 陳冲 潮平兩岸闊 風正一帆懸 2022-08-16)
Eight years ago, there was a piece of calligraphy in Guangrong Hotel, where I stayed in Fujian, saying “Calm is the tide and the two sides broadened. Gentle is the wind and the sail lifting”. My relative, also my companion, knew I loved couplets and asked me what I thought about it. “Don’t go mad and stop the rot!” I replied casually. Of course it’s a word game but I also mean that cross-straits affairs must by all means avoid sentimental reactions. Why be populist and provoke impulsively?
A few days ago, Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan which caused ripple in the tranquil lake (in fact, it aroused such a great storm) that alleviated tensions. Last week (August 11th), the editorial of the Economic Daily News commented that although cross-strait situation makes people worried, it’s still recommended that Taiwan apply for RCEP, and that both sides extend the olive branch to provide an opportunity for peace. After reading it, I wondered whether the statement was too naïve, but above-mentioned famous sentence above came into my mind. On second thought, I think, maybe it’s a remarkable method and some other thoughts appear.
Although I have longed advocated regional economic integration and multilateral free trade agreements (including CPTPP, EFTA, etc.), honestly, I have never seriously considered RCEP. It’s not because I think it is unnecessary, but just as the editorial says, Beijing has significant influence in RCEP so the resistance might be great. In a regional economy that has adopted consensus decision-making method, chances are high that we work hard and end up making fun of or even humiliating ourselves. However, the editor in chief might not simply be an imaginative dreamer. Will RCEP be the turning point in cross-strait relations?
Taiwan has a population of only 23 million. The economic development of the past 70 years has, in short, depended on the comparative advantage of international trade and the division of production. But who are the partners? According to the theory of Jan Tinbergen, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1969, we should cooperate with large economics with close distance (the trade volume of two economies is proportional to the product of GDP and inversely proportional to the square of the distance). And undoubtedly, there will be more advantageous if the language and the culture resemble each other. Cross-strait economic and trade cooperation might not be the top priority politically but it should not be completely ruled out. If both can be members of RCEP at the same time, it would be a good thing for both sides and other members as well, which is also in line with the current global trend of short supply chain. Moreover, judging from the development of the past 30 years, the cross-strait interaction does indeed conform to academic theory and meet the practical needs, which somewhat causes raised eyebrows of some countries that do not conform to Tinbergen's theory.
Cross-strait situation is complicated now and the geopolitics and the gambling between hegemony make it even more chaotic. Just like the pandemic. At first, we tried to stop it from spreading, then is the Zero-Covid policy, and finally we have to coexist with it. The question is how to ease the tensions and find a way for graceful exit? The previous editorial stated that polls show that 70% of people want to maintain peace on cross-strait affairs and that war is not the first choice. Therefore, the highest common factor points to the financial sector. The least unlikely choice might however be a good one. Beijing’s influence has made RCEP an indicative group regarding global trade. Will it turn around? Is there sincerity? Well, we can take a look.
Some people may think that trade negotiations is time-consuming and fail to reflect the urgency. If we want to find a solution that is not complicated and could show our sincerity, the currency swap I have advocated for over 10 years might be a choice. The currency swap is not only necessary, especially when currency war is in full swing now, but also can show sincerity. It may seem just paying lip service on the service, but can be implemented if needed. I have discussed it in the column of the United Daily News on August 2nd so I will skip it here. Don’t forget that the three cross-strait financial MOUs in 2009 covering banking, insurance, and securities and the currency clearance agreement in 2012 are all signed in a reciprocal, non-white-glove, official-to-official manner. Nothing is impossible and all depends on human effort.
There are other bonuses for participating in RCEP. For example, the recent Cambodian affairs in which thousand young people are held captive in Cambodia but the government finds no way to rescue them. Cambodia is a member of RCEP (as are Laos and Myanmar). We can have another channel to rescue those young people and also comfort the beloved elders if we join RCEP instead.
The Economic Daily News editorial last week "The government can seek opportunities for cross-strait peace" actually cited RCEP as an example, hoping that the government could do something and propose an option for cross-strait peace. The government is obliged to be creative and not fall into a dead end. The editorial mentioned in the last paragraph that "at this critical moment, China will not necessarily habitually reject it." In fact, we do not have to habitually handle cross-strait affairs in a dogmatic manner. Just as the ancients said “Calm is the tide and the two sides broadened. Gentle is the wind and the sail lifting”.
(Released on the Economic Daily News, Aug.16th 2022)