(本文翻譯自 陳冲 全民基本所得 Think even harder 2021-03-16)
This year, Andrew Yang will run for the mayor of New York, and Lee Jae-myung, North Korea Gyeonggi-do Province governor, if no accident, will also run for the presidency of South Korea. The universal basic income (UBI) that these two have been advocating for a long time will surely trigger a heated debate in international political circles in the near future.
After the pandemic, many countries had experienced a one-time cash relief program with no strings attached, which can be seen as a large-scale experiment similar to UBI. A year ago on Feb. 2nd 2020, I published an article on Appacus Foundation website titled UBI Made Andrew Yang Famous. Should Taiwan Think Harder?, focusing mainly on the causes and consequences of UBI. Andrew Yang wants the US to think harder. Should we Taiwan also think harder, or even harder?
UBI is actually not a new idea. As early as 50 years ago in 1972 when George McGovern, the then Democratic Party nominee for presidential election, had proposed a 1,000 dollar “demogrant” devised by economist James Tobin. The plan however went down the drain in the end. The main reason is that it is too idealized that most people couldn’t understand the good intentions behind it and that social climate still couldn’t accept it. On the other hand, the government would need financial resources if implementing UBI, and the society was also afraid that it would help foster a culture of lazy. As a result, McGovern could only cry to no avail. In 2017, however, things are showing a turn for the better. Many tech leaders like Bill Gates called for a robot tax, which could be a financial resource for UBI with legitimacy.
In 2016, Switzerland’s voters rejected basic income plan with a monthly income of 2,500 Swiss francs for adults. I remember that two anchors of Hong Kong Phoenix TV commented it vexatious. For this, I wrote an article on Jun. 19th 2016, titled Is UBI indeed vexatious?, in which I stated that UBI is no longer an utopian thought. Especially in the digital age, the conditions for implementation are more mature. We shouldn’t treat it as a joke anymore. Instead, we should think about how we can implement it and the complementary measures.
Technology has advanced by leaps and bounds these days. As AI and quantum computers become reality in front of our eyes, manpower seems less important. In the future, some people may find it difficult to enter the workforce. Reskilling and upskilling in the past will be destroyed by forceful power of AI and quantum computers. These marginal human resources replaced by robots thus become the priority targets of UBI. And due to minimum wage, some remaining marginal jobs may actually become another form of unemployment in disguised, just as Milton Friedman noted ““minimum wage law is most properly described as a law saying employers must discriminate against people who have low skills.”
After recent turmoil by China's ban on Taiwanese pineapples, people suddenly found that there are different kinds of subsidies in Taiwan, which require lots of manpower to review and censor. There are often wealth exclusion clause or identity restriction on financial relief program or subsidies here in Taiwan, such as the annual income threshold and pension, old farmer allowance, oil subsidy, interest subsidy, unemployment allowance, and subsidies for pineapples. These subsidies cause some problems though. In addition to the excessive administrative review and management costs that waste limited subsidy capacity, the identity conflict also leads to disputes over fairness while some even call for abolition. These disputes only cause internal friction. Other identities, such as housewives and family members taking care of the elderly and young, also make contributions to society, and there are also debates on whether to compensate them.
For abovementioned reasons, in the previous article I proposed that by implementing UBI, the government can allow the unemployed to participate in resource allocation and enjoy the fruits of automation reducing labor demand. Overall, a basic income is regarded as the best way that people can enjoy production results as robots replace human labor. During the transition period, EITC (Earned Income Tax Credit) may be a choice to on one hand, encourage those working hard and on the other hand, give those low-income families a chance to escape the poverty trap.
Just imagine if McGovern in 1972 proposed a more pragmatic plan with $300 per person and if Swiss group calling for the referendum suggest in 2016 a humble one with 800 Swiss francs for adults, there may be chance to rewrite the history!
(Released on Appacus Foundation website, Mar. 16th 2021)