(本文翻譯自 陳冲 鬧鐘就是警鐘 危機也是轉機 2021-06-23)
On Jun. 15 during the pandemic, the UK and Australia signed the free trade agreement at the G7 summit. It’s the first FTA after Brexit.
The previous day on Jun. 14th, The Economist published an article titled Something to Celebrate, analyzing the economic recovery of the UK, in which it found that job vacancies increased and that its minimum wage has exceeded 55% of the average wage (the Kaitz Index), ranking second among advanced countries.
Even Earlier on Jun. 2nd, Japanese representative announced at the CPTPP Commission Meeting that the UK had applied to join CPTPP in Feb. this year and the member countries agreed to start discussing its inclusion, which is expected to be completed within a year.
These three topics seem unrelated at first glance and during level 3 alert, the government probably felt nothing abnormal. While we are still arguing about widespread testing for the pandemic and the vaccines, other countries had already turned to a new page for economic and trade development.
With a population of only 23 million, Taiwan has US$540 billion foreign exchange reserve. Everyone knows the importance of foreign trade. In 2001, we joined the WTO in the name of The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu, hoping to again integrate into the international economic and trade system. Unfortunately, the 2003 Doha Round of negotiations suffered defeat as countries changed direction and turned to bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements. Due to diplomatic dilemmas, we, contrarily, had never made breakthrough though. After 2008, the tension eased and we finally completed the ECFA early harvest list. With blessings from other countries, Taiwan also successfully signed the ASTEP and ANZTEC. However, when we were striving for more trade agreement with other Asia-Pacific partners, all fell flat as the Cross-Strait Services Trade Agreement turned unratified in the Legislative Yuan and the aftereffect has continued until now.
The long-lasting pandemic has triggered reflections on globalization, regional integration and even supply chains. At present, the world still values Taiwan’s role in the global value chain, but if we keep refusing to go further on economic integration, based on tariffs, intellectual property rights, trade barriers and other factors, especially the weakening of the protection from ITA, there may be only two options for the restructured value chain: giant companies leave Taiwan, or the global supply chain skips Taiwan. Both are outcomes we aren’t glad to see. As we can see, even the UK has carefully dealt with regional integration matters, we Taiwan must get it on! Senior government officials may say “there will be people who disagree with it”, but it indeed is the problem we must face.
That cross-strait issues concerns international political reality is of course a challenge to Taiwan. It may be difficult if we want to be back to Non. 2009, when two sides signed the three financial MOUs in a reciprocal way using quasi-official title. But at least, we need to return to the situation in which non-governmental sectors serve as white-glove to mediate between the disputants. That is, the Straits Exchange Foundation and the ARATS could exert strength and their wisdom to achieve successful outcomes. That the 750 thousand doses of vaccine from the US became 2.5 million doses after two weeks is the best proof of clever use of geopolitics coupled with non-governmental one last push.
The British pound accounts for 8.09% of the SDR basket, which is neither more nor less, and the UK is still making efforts on economic integration. Geographically, it has nothing to do with Asia-Pacific, but it still longs to join CPTPP. The aforementioned three pieces of news in June alone can show the tenacity and will of the UK. For Taiwan, the UK’s recent action, if not a sharp warning, is at least an alarm bell. Well, I just wonder if the alarm rings loud enough?
(Released on Appacus Foundation website, Jun. 23rd 2021)