(本文翻譯自 陳冲 偏枯的台灣 一個產業的武林 2022-02-22)
Last week, two pieces of news made headlines. These two seems unrelated but actually have something in common. So, what’s the news? One is that TSMC is recruiting analysts with doctoral degrees in political economics and international relations in response to the changing geopolitics; the other is that Taiwan pledges to gain entry to the trade bloc CPTPP. Though no result in the end, domestic politicians had high expectations beforehand, and the ruling party even held a special speech for propaganda, causing a sensation for a time.
It is reported that due to the popularity of semiconductor industry in Taiwan, simply TSMC a company recruits more than 10,000 talents in a year and most of them are experts in technology. Now, that even talents in geopolitics are also to-be-hired targets again shows the magnetic effect of semiconductor industry in the labor market. The next day, media reported that according to the proposal passed by TSMC board and performance bonus amounted to NT$71.2 billion, with an average of about NT$1.24 million per person. It suddenly became a hot topic, and stressed other companies or industries as hiring or retaining talents turn more difficult.
Taiwan knew that regional economic integration is a must to maximize comparative benefits after the failure of the WTO Doha Round negotiations after 2003. However, the volatile cross-strait relation deterred the negotiations of bilateral trade agreement so that Taiwan could only rely on the preferential tariffs of electronic components and products provided by the existed Information Technology Agreement (ITA) to keep up appearances. The tension eased after 2008 and agreements like ECFA, ASTEP, ANZTEC were released, temporarily relieving the pressure. Fortunately, in Dec. 2015, WTO expanded the ITA to ITA2, with new semiconductor, polarizer flat-panel displays and other communications- electronics included. It helped Taiwan boost export, maintain or even enhance the competitiveness of ITA products, but however it also brought about a distorted industry structure.
Ten years ago, the exports of ITA products were NT$124.7 billion, accounting for less than 40% (39.97%) of total exports. By the end of last year, the number had doubled to NT$247.6 billion, accounting for 55.49%. These data, although reasonably explain the results of magnetic effect in employment market, cruelly reflect the imbalance among industries. Taiwan’s development in the past, although hadn’t gone very well as few FTAs signed, could still count on preferential tariffs of ITA to maintain the competitiveness of electronics products so that electronic industries could compete fairly with other countries and help achieve the growth of GDP. However, on the other hand, some visionaries started to worry that non-ITA industries or products still accounted for half of labor market. So, is it better to leave Taiwan for another base abroad, or just simply give up the market due to the incompetitive tariffs? No matter what the outcome is, it should be unwelcomed by the public. As for ITA industries, all, except for TSMC, will face capital crowding-out effect and talent shortage. (According to job bank statistics, the manpower shortage for semiconductors this year is 34,000), which means that the half-paralyzed symptom has already deteriorated to a national security problem.
The 2014 movie Kung Fu Jungle caught eyes of audience. It is of course a blessing if a top master appears, but if the top master drives others in a corner, will it be a dull world of martial arts, or an endangered one?
(Released on Appacus Foundation website, Feb 22nd 2022)