(本文翻譯自 陳冲 TPP奇遇記 2022-02-16)
It has been rumored that the CPTPP will hold a video conference this week to discuss new member matters. As great powers compete, I can’t help but think of the tortuous process of TPP. Well, shouldn’t we call it CPTPP instead? Maybe only Life of Pi (an adventure film) can compete with TPP in terms of the adventurous course.
Imagine it. Four teenagers played basketball on a simple basket court. Suddenly someone called “Hey, let me play with you guys!” Four teenagers looked up and found that it was LeBron James! Of course, they agreed with the request. After James joined, he invited several NBA stars to play with them. As we can see, the four teenagers can no longer play a role in the games. Well, even interesting is that when they are still practicing together for a race, James quietly slipped away!
Let’s go back to 1989. APEC was established that year and it was an economic forum in the post-cold war era actually dominated by super powers. That lacking of substantive conclusions made small member states feel dull. As of 2005, there were four small countries, Singapore, Brunei, New Zealand, Chile, maybe being treated coldly or intend to show something, decided to start a new club. At first, it was a club mainly for strengthening relationship among member states but it used a resounding name, Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement. After that, the US wanted to construct Asia-Pacific trade and economic integration but the best name Trans-Pacific had already been used by the former mentioned club, so the US turned to join them and even invited five other countries like Canada to join together, naturally becoming the leader of the organization using Trans-Pacific as it dreamed. In 2011, it was renamed TPP. After TPP gradually formed, the US again invited Japan and other countries to join in and started negotiations. People agreed that TPP was on a par with RCEP then. However, no one could imagine that when Trump ran for American President, he thought trade deficit was a sin and slammed it harshly. TPP was undoubtedly regarded the one by which Asian countries took advantage of the US. Not that surprisingly, Trump announced to withdraw from the TPP the next day right after taking office. Suddenly, the TPP lost its head and didn’t know how to move forward. Fortunately, Japan held its ground and led all to continue the negotiations. Finally, the 2018 CPTPP agreement was signed. Twists and turns again and again. It’s not exaggerated to call this history a fantasy drifting.
Taiwan has long known that if we want to survive in the international community, we can no longer claim that “Han and thieves cannot coexist” but should instead make efforts, at least on a non-political level, to return to the international community. After various arrangements, in 1989, we rejoined the ADB and the Olympic Games, joined APEC and applied to the accession of the WTO. Long-time consultation and negotiation, we finally became a WTO member in 2000 and reintegrated into global trading system. However, seeing that the WTO hit a wall as 2003 Doha Round negotiations failed, having expectation for a new WTO is not practical so we have no choice but turn to regional economic integration, hoping to maintain an equal foothold in the international economic and trade arena. Sadly, cross-strait relationship was not good then so nothing was achieved at the end. After 2008, the tension eased. As two sides signed three financial MOUs in a reciprocal, non-white-glove, official-to-official manner in 2009 and then ECFA in 2010, other countries seem less worried about the relationship so that we could complete the ASTEP and ANZTEC afterwards. Pity is that due to domestic atmosphere changes, various arrangements for foreign trade and economic cooperation have been suspended until now.
In 2013 when the TPP and RCEP stood as equals, I have once written an article in the newspaper “ If Jin Ambassador only needs to do one thing," calling for the government to take advantage of the time and make effort to join TPP at all costs. However, various reasons plus the confrontation between government and opposition party made the suggestion never materialize. With hindsight, if we had made it then, I would have probably been regarded as a war criminal during 2016 election.
At the beginning of the year, the media talked about CPTPP enthusiastically, but from the past WTO to ECFA, financial MOUs, ASTEP and ANZTEC, we can know that it’s hard to build sense of trust for signing agreements if we turn a blind eye to the cross-strait disputes. As for multilateral agreements, unanimous consent is a must which even requires eased tension between both sides. Before setting up a working group and starting negotiations, we have already cast aside our bargaining chips (American pork, Japan food linked to Fukushima disaster) so that it seems we have no right to feel optimistic about the CPTPP. Without LeBron James' team, it would just be a hard task to come up with a final consensus.